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In this paper, we present a framework for assessing the effectiveness of different business closure policies, using New York City as a case study. Business closure policies have been widely implemented in an attempt to slow down the pandemic, but it is difficult to measure the contribution of closures of specific industries to virus transmission. Our framework allows us to estimate the impact of specific industry closures on the spread of COVID-19 via their effects on aggregate mobility. We find that early reopening led to a prolonged pandemic and a large case surge in the second wave during 2020, though the reopening allowed the city to regain its economic function as a consumption hub. An alternative policy that extends the lockdown is found to be more cost-effective as it makes future traveling safer and prevents the economy from relapsing into a more stringent policy regime.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Production and Operations Management --- Demography --- Health Policy --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Crisis Management --- Regulation and Industrial Policy: General --- Health Behavior --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Demographic Economics: General --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Population & demography --- Health systems & services --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Capacity utilization --- Production --- Population and demographics --- Health care --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Communicable diseases --- Industrial capacity --- Population --- Medical care --- United States

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We document a decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century. This decline reflects active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers; it is not a byproduct of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, of reserve accumulation by a small handful of central banks with large and distinctive balance sheets, or of changes in coverage of surveys of reserve composition. Strikingly, the decline in the dollar’s share has not been accompanied by an increase in the shares of the pound sterling, yen and euro, other long-standing reserve currencies and units that, along with the dollar, have historically comprised the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. Rather, the shift out of dollars has been in two directions: a quarter into the Chinese renminbi, and three quarters into the currencies of smaller countries that have played a more limited role as reserve currencies. A characterization of the evolution of the international reserve system in the last 20 years is thus as ongoing movement away from the dollar, a recent if still modest rise in the role of the renminbi, and changes in market liquidity, relative returns and reserve management enhancing the attractions of nontraditional reserve currencies. These observations provide hints of how the international system may evolve going forward.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- International Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- International Financial Markets --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Finance --- Reserve currencies --- Money --- Currencies --- International reserves --- Central banks --- Reserves management --- Asset valuation --- Asset and liability management --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Asset-liability management

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We document a decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century. This decline reflects active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers; it is not a byproduct of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, of reserve accumulation by a small handful of central banks with large and distinctive balance sheets, or of changes in coverage of surveys of reserve composition. Strikingly, the decline in the dollar’s share has not been accompanied by an increase in the shares of the pound sterling, yen and euro, other long-standing reserve currencies and units that, along with the dollar, have historically comprised the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. Rather, the shift out of dollars has been in two directions: a quarter into the Chinese renminbi, and three quarters into the currencies of smaller countries that have played a more limited role as reserve currencies. A characterization of the evolution of the international reserve system in the last 20 years is thus as ongoing movement away from the dollar, a recent if still modest rise in the role of the renminbi, and changes in market liquidity, relative returns and reserve management enhancing the attractions of nontraditional reserve currencies. These observations provide hints of how the international system may evolve going forward.

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As the pandemic heigthened policymakers’ demand for more frequent and timely indicators to assess economic activities, traditional data collection and compilation methods to produce official indicators are falling short—triggering stronger interest in real time data to provide early signals of turning points in economic activity. In this paper, we examine how data extracted from the Google Places API and Google Trends can be used to develop high frequency indicators aligned to the statistical concepts, classifications, and definitions used in producing official measures. The approach is illustrated by use of Google data-derived indicators that predict well the GDP trajectories of selected countries during the early stage of COVID-19. To this end, we developed a methodological toolkit for national compilers interested in using Google data to enhance the timeliness and frequency of economic indicators.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Statistics --- Web Services & APIs --- Diseases: Contagious --- Information Management --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Information and Internet Services --- Computer Software --- Health Behavior --- Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Web services --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Data capture & analysis --- Manufacturing industries --- Economic and financial statistics --- APIs --- Technology --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Big data --- Manufacturing --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic statistics --- Application program interfaces --- Computer software --- Communicable diseases --- Australia